Round 8 of the 2022 Candidates: Nakamura defeats Caruana; Now It's a Three-Man Race?

(Originally published on my Substack blog; please subscribe there.)

What is special about New Year’s Day? Objectively, nothing at all. There’s no scientific reason for the year to start 10 days after the northern hemisphere’s winter solstice, and even if there were, it wouldn’t give that day any magical powers. And yet the day has a powerful effect on most of us: we sense the opportunity for a new beginning, and most of us make resolutions to improve ourselves in various ways in the new year. And it’s not just January 1 that has that effect on us. Our birthdays often function similarly, and we might use an anniversary, the start of a new month, or even the start of a new week as the occasion for a fresh start. In traditional Christian churches, Lent and Advent can have that function, and in Judaism there’s Yom Kippur and Rosh Hashana, not to mention the Sabbath (or each Sunday for many Christians). Other religions have their days where the believer is encouraged to review their lives and make changes.

Interestingly, the occurrence of a milestone can lead to profound changes, even when the milestone has no religious or moral significance whatsoever, and even more remarkably, when the individual has no intention or desire to make a change. An example that comes to mind is the All-Star break in baseball. It has frequently happened that a player who had a great first half of the season performed far worse in the second half, and the reverse is true as well. One obvious explanation is regression to the mean, but my understanding is that it goes beyond that. Regression to the mean should in theory happen all the time, but it occurs far more often at the All-Star break, and often to a greater degree than one would expect.

This Candidates tournament didn’t have its “All-Star break”, but the last one did, and it made a difference. Ian Nepomniachtchi had time to forget about his loss to Maxime Vachier-Lagrave at the end of the first cycle and came back strong when the event resumed a year later. MVL did not manage to maintain his momentum, while Ding Liren went from -2 in the first cycle back to an even score overall in the second.

So what about this one? There was no break, but there is still something about the idea of having a second cycle. It’s a fresh start. Yes, the first cycle ended just one day ago and yes, those scores still count. Still, rather than seeing it as round 8 of the Candidates, one can see it as round 1 of a new round-robin, and in that way put the first part of the tournament in the past.

I think it is with that in mind that Nepomniachtchi, with the white pieces, went for a draw from move 1 against Ding Liren. With extremely rare exceptions, the Scotch Four Knights is not an opening one GM plays against another - to say nothing of a game between super-GMs - when trying to win. It is safe to the point of stodginess, an attempt to keep the odds of a draw around 90% while hoping for perhaps the very slightest of nibbles. And this was not a case where Nepo had something clever prepared: the players followed known theory for 21 moves, when Ding varied from one of his own games. He easily drew that one, and he easily drew this one.

So why did Nepo throw away a white game against a player who, though great, was also near the bottom of the tournament, with a winless -1 score? My suggestion is that it’s because this was round 1 of a new tournament, and Ding’s discouragement about his play in the first cycle could be erased with an opportunity at the start of the brand new second cycle. Discretion was the better part of valor against the pre-tournament top seed. The safe draw kept Ding from “waking up”, and guaranteed that at worst he would enter the next round tied with Fabiano Caruana for first, going into their game.

Instead, it worked out even better: he finished his game quickly, while Caruana lost a six-hour game against Hikaru Nakamura. (It was a fresh start for Nakamura, while Caruana’s momentum from the first cycle disappeared.) Caruana’s approach was exactly the opposite of Nepo’s. Where Nepomniachtchi was cautious as White, Caruana chose an extremely risky line with Black. I don’t think Caruana’s choice of the Dilworth was a good one against this opponent, especially but not only in this situation, and I felt this way the second I saw the variation on the board. (See the analysis file for a significant elaboration of this point.) Caruana achieved a good position, but Nakamura was far more adept at handling it, and White was soon winning. Nakamura probably could have won the game swiftly had he played 39.Be8, but was instead forced to continue for another two+ hours thanks to Caruana’s resilient defense. Still, he persevered and never let the win slip, and now he’s just half a point behind Caruana, who is a point behind Nepomniachtchi.

The hitherto winless Richard Rapport also gained a full point in a lively game that would probably have been included in Vladimir Kramnik’s censure had the interview been done a couple of days later. Rapport’s attacking play in the opening was ill-founded, and Jan-Krzysztof Duda enjoyed a significant advantage early on. Unfortunately for Duda, his defensive play was quite poor, and he was soon blown off the board. Now Rapport is back to 50%, and can entertain some slight hopes of success.

The last game, between tailenders Alireza Firouzja and Teimour Radjabov, went even longer than the Nakamura-Caruana game. Firouzja was better through most of this 93-move monster, that went more than seven hours, but finally Radjabov managed to fully equalize and force Firouzja to play for the draw. Even they played with more optimism than their last-place standing would lead us to expect, so - perhaps - the psychological magic of the fresh start affected them as well.

Two addenda. First: at the end of the paragraph on the Rapport-Duda game, I suggested that Rapport “can entertain some slight hopes of success”. You may interpret this as a statement about his chances of taking first, which are slight indeed. However - and I don’t know if this is speculation or what will happen if the situation comes up - but I’ve heard talk that if Carlsen does indeed refuse to defend his title the top two finishers in the Candidates will play the World Championship match. If so, then Duda and Nakamura don’t have to overtake Nepo; it would suffice for them to overtake Caruana (while staying ahead of each other).

Second: That makes tomorrow’s (Monday’s) game between Caruana and Nepomniachtchi both less important and more important than it would otherwise be. It’s less important for Nepo, in that he could still end up in, say, a World Championship match with Caruana even if he lost the game and finished in the American’s wake. Likewise, a draw wouldn’t be fatal to Caruana’s chances of coming second and achieving the same sort of match. However, the game is more important in that the results could prove enormously useful to Nakamura and Duda in the race for second. (And if Nepo loses, Nakamura is by no means out of the chase for first.)

And so this speculation-filled post comes to an end. Here are today’s games, with my comments, and here are the round 9 pairings:

Firouzja (3) - Rapport (4)

Radjabov (3) - Nakamura (4.5)

Caruana (5) - Nepomniachtchi (6)

Ding (3.5) - Duda (3)

Richard Rapport, Romanian

Bad luck for Hungary, and Rex Sinquefield needs to up his game.

(Originally posted here. Please subscribe at my Substack blog, where my posts will be published first.)

Apparently the U. S. of A. is not the only country in the habit of buying up foreign grandmasters! Romanian gambling entrepreneur Sacha Dragic is apparently behind Richard Rapport’s switching federations from his native Hungary to neighboring Romania.

Congrats to Romanian chess fans, and my condolences to Hungarian chess fans. Hungary has had some great players over the years, and one of the greatest players of all time was of Hungarian descent. Peter Leko came within a draw in the last game of a world championship match of winning the title, but the top title remains elusive. With Rapport’s departure, the wait for this great chess country will be a little longer.

Superbet Rapid & Blitz: Anand Leads After the Rapid

Viswanathan Anand enjoyed a great performance in the rapid section of the 2022 Superbet Rapid & Blitz, though the last game may leave a sour taste in his mouth going into the blitz. He won his first five games before giving up a draw in the last round of day 2, and today opened with an impressive win over David Gavrilescu and an interesting draw with Fabiano Caruana. Unfortunately for the former World Champion, he lost a crazy, up-and-down game to Richard Rapport in the last round, and finished only half a point ahead of him. (Or rather, a point ahead, given the 2-1-0 scoring for the rapid.)

Interestingly, he could easily have finished half a point (or rather, a full point) back, had Rapport finished off his winning advantage against Wesley So in the penultimate round. Had he won that game, and still defeated Anand in the final game, he would have finished with six wins in a row.

Here are the standings, both normal and doubled-up, after the rapid. The next two days will see blitz round robins scored in the usual 1-.5-0 system.

1. Anand 7/9 (14/18)
2. Rapport 6.5 (13)
3. Duda 6 (12)
4. So 5.5 (11)
5. Aronian 5 (10)
6. Caruana 4.5 (9)
7-8. Wojtaszek, Shevchenko 3.5 (7)
9. Korobov 2.5 (5)
10. Gavrilescu 1 (2)

Finally, here are Anand's games from today.

Wijk aan Zee, Round 5 & 6: A Three-Way Tie for First, Including Carlsen

The tournament has continued to be competitive and generally aggressive, with 16 decisive games so far out of 42, with plenty of other games seeing players miss significant chances for the full point. It has also tightened at the top, and Vidit Gujrathi is no longer the sole leader, though he continues to enjoy a share of the lead.

In round 5 he was caught by Richard Rapport and Shakhriyar Mamedyarov, who won against Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa and Jorden Van Foreest, respectively. Rapport mishandled the opening against Pragg, but in the sharp middlegame that ensued his opponent lost the thread and was soon lost (though the game went on for a long time). As for Mamedyarov, JVF got too optimistic, and his 21.Nf7 seemed to be a blunder - he probably just missed 21...Rxf7 or, perhaps more likely, missed 24...Nxf5. Whatever the case, he was lost, but Shakh gave him a chance to escape. 35.Qb7+ would have drawn, but 35.Rc1? allowed Black to coordinate everything for a final attack, and Black won.

As for Vidit, he was fortunate to draw with Anish Giri in round 5, and in round 6 he achieved a more normal draw with Jan-Krzysztof Duda. Mamedyarov remained tied for first after his short but shaky draw with Nils Grandelius, but the third member of the triumvirate changed. Magnus Carlsen defeated Rapport to take his place in shared first. Rapport was within a move or two of solving his problems on the black side of a Catalan, but didn't manage to find the best moves at the key moments. (20...Ne5 probably would have resulted in a quick draw, for instance.)

There were two other decisive results. One saw Fabiano Caruana lose a horrible game to Giri. The weirdness started with the baffling 18.Kh1 and concluded with the unbelievable 40.Rb6. Sometimes, one's brain goes on strike, and when that happens all you can do is shrug it off and hope it feels like returning to work the next day. Speaking of going on strike, your blogger has decided to give himself a pass when it comes to examining games in the Giuoco Piano. So (almost) all I can tell you about Sergey Karjakin's game with JVF was that it was a Giuoco and that he won it.

All the other games from these two rounds have more robust comments from yours truly, and you can replay them here. And here are the pairings for round 7, today (Saturday):

• Esipenko (3.5) - Shankland (2.5)
• Giri (3) - Dubov (2.5)
• Duda (3) - Caruana (2.5)
• Van Foreest (2.5) - Vidit (4)
• Grandelius (1.5) - Karjakin (3)
• Rapport (3.5) - Mamedyarov (4)
• Praggnanandhaa (2.5) - Carlsen (4)

Speed Chess Championship: Sarin Beats Rapport in the First Quarterfinal

Normally I don't give spoilers, but I wanted to save Richard Rapport fans some heartburn. Rapport had winning position after winning position after winning position against Nihal Sarin in the 5'+1" and 3'+1" sections, but far more often than not Sarin would wriggle and swindle his way out, even when he was well behind on the clock, and turn the tables. Entering the bullet portion Sarin led by 4 points, and increased the margin to a severe 9 points, winning 18-9. (Rapport did win one attractive game in the bullet, but it was mostly Sarin mauling the poor guy.)

Sarin will play the winner of the Wesley So vs. Fabiano Caruana match taking place a week from today, while the other semi will be set by the winners of Ding Liren vs. Levon Aronian and Hikaru Nakamura vs. Anish Giri matches, both taking place this coming Monday.

Norway Chess, Rounds 6 & 7: Carlsen Awakens, but Rapport Keeps Winning

Good news for Magnus Carlsen fans: after a listless first half of the Norway Chess tournament (four draws and a loss in classical chess), he has won his first two games in the second cycle (against Alireza Firouzja and Aryan Tari) and has jumped from a tie for fourth into clear second. And Carlsen fans with a touch of schadenfreude may also take a little perverse pleasure in his rival's difficulties: Ian Nepomniachtchi was in clear second at the halfway point, but after a draw and an Armageddon loss to Sergey Karjakin in round 6 and a loss to Firouzja in round 7, he finds himself in third, barely ahead of Firouzja and Karjakin.

So from the standpoint of Carlsen's form and confidence heading into the world championship match in November, things are looking up for the champ. As far as tournament victory is concerned, however, he's still on the outside looking in, as he remains three and a half points behind Richard Rapport. Rapport has also won his first two games in the second cycle - over Tari and Karjakin - and has been screaming up the rating list to #6 in the world. It's odd that a player of his caliber has flown under the radar the way he has, but if he finishes with a victory in the tournament, that will likely change.

Tomorrow's (Wednesday's) game could decide matters. He will have the black pieces against Carlsen, and a win would clinch at least a tie for first - only Nepomniachtchi could tie him in that cases, and only if he won his last three games while Rapport lost his last two. Granted, a win against Carlsen is a tall order, much more so with Black, but even a draw, regardless of the Armageddon result, would leave him a big favorite to win the event.

We'll see; here are tomorrow's pairings. (A reminder: a player gets 3 points for a win in the classical game, 1 for a draw, and 0 for a loss; if the game is drawn, the players have an Armageddon game with the same colors, with the winner (or Black, in case of a draw) receiving an additional half a point.)

• Carlsen (12) - Rapport (15.5)
• Nepomniachtchi (9.5) - Tari (3)
• Karjakin (8.5) - Firouzja (9)

Norway Chess 2021: Carlsen Wins Every Round, but Rapport Leads the Tournament at the Rest Day

Thanks to the funny scoring system used in the Norway Chess tournament, one can "win" every round but not win the tournament. The tournament is a classical round-robin, with a twist. If someone wins the classical game, they get three points while the loser gets zero. If, however, the classical game is drawn, the players each get a full point, and then play an Armageddon game with the same colors for an additional half a point. In other words, if A beats B in the classical game while C and D draw, with C winning the Armageddon game, the scores will look like this:

A 3
C 1.5
D 1
E 0

In this event, Carlsen has been C in every round. All four of his classical games have been drawn, and he has "won" all the Armageddon games, drawing those in which he had Black and winning those in which he played White. Carlsen thus has six points out of a maximum possible of 12.

Richard Rapport, meanwhile, has drawn two Armageddon games, once with White - against Carlsen - and once with Black (against Sergey Karjakin), receiving a total of 2.5 points from those two rounds. But he has two classical wins - against Aryan Tari in round one and Alireza Firouzja in round four - and those six additional points have him in clear first with 8.5 points.

Also ahead of Carlsen is his pending challenger, Ian Nepomniachtchi, who has seven points. In rounds 2 and 3 he defeated Firouzja and Tari in Armageddon to pick up 3 points, and after losing to Carlsen in the round 4 Armageddon game yesterday (1 more point) he made up his postponed round 1 game with Karjakin today with a convincing win in classical chess (3 points) to get to 7 points overall.

It's a double round-robin (six players, ten rounds), so there's a ways to go yet. Other scores: Karjakin has 4 points, and Firouzja and Tari are tied at the bottom with 3 points apiece.

The Champions Showdown: The Rapid Leaders Keep Their Leads to the End

The Champions Showdown was a fun event with lots of decisive results. The play was entertaining and the openings were lively. It was everything a fan could hope for - except for the almost complete lack of drama. Some of the blitz matches were close, taken just as blitz matches, but with the exception of a brief flurry near the end of the match between Veselin Topalov and Leinier Dominguez, there was hardly a stich of doubt about who would win what match shortly after the start of the blitz portion.

The match between Fabiano Caruana and Pentala Harikrishna was exceptionally lopsided, with Caruana keeping his foot on the gas throughout the first day. Caruana stumbled a bit on day 2, but still won the blitz portion 17.5-6.5 and won overall with an enormous 35.5-12.5 victory.

Hikaru Nakamura's lead over Jan-Krzysztof Duda was only 14-10 after the rapid games, but when he began the blitz with a 5.5-1.5 run it was pretty clear that the player who has generally been considered the best player in the world, barring only Magnus Carlsen, was going to stroll to victory. He won the blitz 15.5-8.5 and finished a 29.5-18.5 winner overall.

Wesley So led David Navara by a very comfortable 16-8 margin after the rapid games, and led the blitz portion past the halfway point of that part of the competition. Navara went on a nice run to almost win the blitz, but So won the last two games to tie the blitz 12-12 and take the match with an overall score of 28-20.

Veselin Topalov led Leinier Dominguez 15-9 after the rapid games, and went +1 in day 1 of the blitz (6.5-5.5). But then Dominguez caught fire. After a draw to open day 2 he won, drew, won twice more, drew again and scored another win. That brought the score to 23-20 in Topalov's favor, and when Topalov won game 44 he was just a draw away from sealing match victory. Dominguez won game 45, but Topalov drew game 46 and the last two games as well to sneak home with a 25.5-22.5 victory despite losing the blitz by a 13.5-10.5 score.

Finally, Richard Rapport entered the rapid with a crushing 18-6 lead over Sam Shankland. Shankland was much more competitive in the blitz, but Rapport won that as well, 13.5-10.5 to win the match 31.5-16.5.

A good time was had by all, especially since the winners made $36,000 each and the losers were consoled with $24,000 checks. Not bad for a week's work!

The Champions Showdown: Mostly Blowouts After the Rapid Stage

After three days and 12 rapid games, four of the five matches of the Champions Showdown in St. Louis are practically over, barring major comebacks from those who are trailing. The rapid games count double, and the 12 games are equal in value to the 24 blitz games coming over the next two days. Here are the standings so far:

Caruana 18 - Harikrishna 6

Nakamura 14 - Duda 10

So 16 - Navara 8

Topalov 15 - Dominguez 9

Rapport 18 - Shankland 6

Fabiano Caruana came out smoking against Pentala Harikrishna the first two days, going 3.5-.5 (7-1) each of the first two days. His first (and so far only) win in the rapid came in the first game today, but Caruana won in game two and drew the remaining games to maintain an enormous lead.

Richard Rapport won the first three games of the match against Sam Shankland to put heavy pressure on the American. Shankland stopped the bleeding for a while, (barely) drawing the last game on day 1 and the first three games of day 2. He suffered a very unnecessary loss in the last game of day 2, but started day three with a win. Unfortunately for him, the series of six games with even results was punctuated by three more losses, bookending the start of the match.

The match between Wesley So and David Navara was closely contested at first. Navara won game 1, and although So finished the first day at +1 Navara struck back at the start of day 2 to equalize the scores. But then So took over, winning four in a row (= an eight-point lead), setting the margin that is present going into the blitz.

Veselin Topalov and Leinier Dominguez were equal after two days, with one win by each player and six draws, but day three was a disaster for Dominguez and a triumph for Topalov. Dominguez drew the second game and lost the rest, and trails by six points heading into the blitz.

The closest match is the one between Hikaru Nakamura and Jan-Krzysztof Duda, and if Duda had won the last game instead of losing it it would have been tied. With Duda having finished as the runner-up in the World Blitz Championship a couple of months ago, it would be premature to claim that the match is over - though I'd still expect Nakamura to pull out match victory.

The Next Big Event: The 2019 Champions Showdown

Hopefully everyone is enjoying Valentine's Day with someone they love. (Unless you're a little kid, in which case all that romantic stuff is icky. For you, be happy - the day is almost done!) Here's some good chess news to go along with your romantic bliss: a very high-level rapid & blitz event starts in less than a week.

It's the 2019 Champions Showdown in St. Louis, and it features the United States' Fab Five (note the extra pun, free of charge) taking on five challengers from the rest of the world (ROW). There will be three days of rapid play and two days of blitz, and these are the matchups:

• Fabiano Caruana vs. Pentala Harikrishna
• Hikaru Nakamura vs. Jan-Krzysztof Duda
• Wesley So vs. David Navara
• Leinier Dominguez vs. Veselin Topalov
• Sam Shankland vs. Richard Rapport

I'm pretty excited about the event, and it will be nice to see Caruana and especially the long inactive Dominguez back in action. I think the Americans will be favorites on every board, though I wouldn't be shocked to see the ROWers win one or two of the first, fourth, or fifth matches.

Here are the specifics:

The event runs from February 20-24, and play each day starts at 1 p.m. local time (= 2 p.m. ET/8 p.m. CET). The first three days will be devoted to rapid chess, the last two to blitz. There will be 12 rapid games - 4 per day - and 24 blitz games - 12 per day. The rapid time control is 15' + 10" (an increment, thankfully, not the abominable Bronstein delay) and the blitz control is 3' + 2". The rapid games are scored 2-1-0, the blitz games 1-.5-0, with the prize money in each match awarding $36,000 to the winner and $24,000 to the loser. If the match finishes in a tie, that's it: the money is split and there's no playoff.