2020/1 Candidates, Round 14: Nepomniachtchi Still the Tournament Winner

The last round was irrelevant with respect to determining tournament victory, but it still mattered for prize money and rating points. So: on with the show.

Ian Nepomniachtchi was probably less motivated than a trust-fund baby in the world's most boring college class, having already won the event and clinched a match with Magnus Carlsen, so it's unsurprising that he played a weird opening against Ding Liren, got confused about his opening preparation, and was lost before move 20. For Ding it was a nice result: his third win in a row (which I expected and semi-predicted after he won in round 12), salvaging some rating points and getting back to 50%.

With a win, Anish Giri would have tied Nepo for first place. With bottom seed and tailender Kirill Alekseenko for an opponent, one would think he'd have excellent chances for success. One would be wrong. He got nothing from the opening, was generally on the defense from around move 22 on, and a series of errors after the time control gave Alekseenko the chance to win, which he seized with both hands.

So who took second? Maxime Vachier-Lagrave had the good fortune to face Wang Hao, whose results in the second cycle were terrible. Wang was on the defense but mostly fine on the black side a Berlin ending until he made three consecutive errors, culminating with an outright blunder. For MVL, it was a good finish, bringing him back to within half a point of Nepomniachtchi. For Wang Hao, it was the end of a dreadful run. He went -4 in the last cycle, losing his last three games.

Finally, Fabiano Caruana could have finished tied for second with MVL, had he won against Alexander Grischuk. He pressed a little, but Grischuk kept control and held the draw.

The games, with my comments, are here. And here are the final standings:

1. Nepomniachtchi 8.5 (out of 14)
2. Vachier-Lagrave 8
3-4. Giri, Caruana 7.5
5-6. Ding Liren, Grischuk 7
7. Alekseenko 5.5
8. Wang Hao 5

2020/1 Candidates, Round 13: Nepo Clinches a Title Shot **UPDATED**

This is just a "breaking news" post; I'll have a proper post (much) later today. Ian Nepomniachtchi drew with Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, and could have played even more ambitiously. But this proved unnecessary, as Anish Giri felt the need to take serious risks against Alexander Grischuk in a position that couldn't justify it. Grischuk converted the point easily, and that was the end of the race for first. Giri had two problems: first, at the point where he decided to play (too) riskily, MVL was in some trouble. Second, even if he had known that the Nepomniachtchi game would finish in a draw and played for a draw as well, he'd still need to outscore Nepo by a full point in the last round. With white against Alekseenko, his part of the bargain would be reasonably possible, but counting on Ding Liren to defeat Nepomniachtchi is taking a serious chance. So, he decided to put his fate in his own hands, and on this occasion it didn't work. He'll be back, as they say.

In the other games, Fabiano Caruana gradually outplayed Wang Hao, and Ding Liren won against Kirill Alekseenko when the latter played too fast and blundered in a position where he could have won.

Games later; here are tomorrow's pairings: 

• Caruana (7) - Grichuk (6.5)
• Giri (7.5) - Alekseenko (4.5)
• Ding Liren (6) - Nepomniachtchi (8.5)
• Vachier-Lagrave (7) - Wang Hao (5) 

Congratulations to Ian Nepomniachtchi! And now, time for early predictions. Will he upset Carlsen, or will Magnus's reign of terror continue?

**UPDATE**

First, my remark about the Wang Hao-Caruana game was in error. Caruana was pressing and making occasional progress, but every time he started to earn an edge he'd make an inaccuracy in turn. While Wang Hao made a few inaccuracies, the loss was fundamentally due to a single large error.

Second: the games, with my comments, are here.

2020/1 Candidates, Round 12: Nepo, Giri, MVL Win

(And so did Ding Liren, but he's out of the race for first.)

For most of the day, it looked like Anish Giri was the story of the round. He defeated Fabiano Caruana, with Black, in a very well-played game where Caruana was the first player to break new ground. It was a great achievement by Giri, and not only seemed to guarantee him a share of the lead with two rounds to go, but he also put an end to Caruana's hopes of achieving a second world championship match with Magnus Carlsen. (Or close. He may yet be mathematically alive, assuming there are no tiebreak problems.) All of those accomplishments deserve the praise that I and many other commentators are bestowing upon Giri, but there is one hiccup that must be noted. Ian Nepomniachtchi somehow managed to defeat Wang Hao from what had been an extremely drawish position (and Wang's premature resignation was a nice "chef's kiss" touch to his self-destruction, and all-around odd performance in the second cycle). So, despite Giri's win and his streak of 3.5 points in his last four games, he remains half a point behind Nepo heading into the final rest day.

Still alive in the hunt for first, but just barely, is Maxime Vachier-Lagrave. His performance in the second cycle had been very poor, but today he won an excellent game against bottom seed Kirill Alekseenko to stay within a point and a half of Nepomniachtchi with two games to go. More good news for MVL: he plays Nepo in the next round, but he'll have the black pieces.

Finally, as noted in the parenthetical at the top of the post, Ding Liren won, putting an end to Alexander Grischuk's hopes in the event. (Grischuk entered the round tied with MVL, a point and a half behind Nepomniachtchi.) Grischuk played solidly all game, but then played wildly and badly after the time control, speedily turning a very drawish position into a loss.

(The games, with my comments, are here.)

So, with two rounds to go, there are two favorites, Nepo and Giri, with MVL having a small chance and Caruana (at best) a snowball's chance. The players have Sunday off, and here are the pairings for the penultimate round on Monday and the finale on Tuesday. (It is technically possible for there to be a playoff, but it's unlikely, and the mere fact of a tie doesn't guarantee it - the players involved must be tied on multiple tiebreakers as well.)

Round 13 Pairings:

• Wang Hao (5) - Caruana (6)
• Nepomniachtchi (8) - Vachier-Lagrave (6.5)
• Alekseenko (4.5) - Ding Liren (5)
• Grischuk (5.5) - Giri (7.5)

Round 14 Pairings:

• Caruana - Grischuk
• Giri - Alekseenko
• Ding Liren - Nepomniachtchi
• Vachier-Lagrave - Wang Hao

Nepomniachtchi has a half-point lead over Giri, while Giri has the easier schedule--especially on the last day. And it doesn't help Nepo that Ding won today and gets to play the tournament's tailender and bottom seed on Monday; he may enter the last round with plenty of confidence and even a touch of ambition, if a win would bring him up to 50%. Nepo has another very important advantage, though: he beat Giri in the first cycle, so if they finish the 14th round with the same number of points (and no one else is tied with or ahead of them), Nepomniachtchi wins on tiebreaks.

In case the event finishes in a two-way tie between Giri and MVL, I'm not sure who finishes ahead on tiebreaks. The head-to-head was event, as they drew both games, but there are other tiebreaks as well. As for a two-way tie for first between Nepo and MVL, MVL would win that one on tiebreaks--but it's an unlikely scenario. MVL would have to defeat Nepo in round 13, and then outscore him by a half a point in the last round - let's say MVL wins and Nepo draws. That's not impossible, but the only way they finish in a two-way tie for first is if Giri only manages half a point in his last two games. It's possible, but unlikely. As for what would happen in case of a three-way tie for first, I'm not sure.

The most fun scenario, from a clown-car disaster perspective, comes if Nepo loses his last two games, MVL beats Nepo and draws with Wang Hao, Giri scores half a point in his last two games, and Caruana finishes with two wins. Then all four players tie for first. (Note that Caruana can also be involved in a three-way or even a two-way tie for first.)

All these conjectures are entertaining, but it's also possible that the tournament ends, practically speaking, on Monday. If Nepomniachtchi wins and Giri fails to win, Nepo clinches.

2020/1 Candidates, Round 11: Giri Closes the Gap

Ian Nepomniachtchi's lead has shrunk back down to half a point with three rounds to go in the Candidates, thanks to Anish Giri's attacking win over Ding Liren. Nepomniachtchi played it safe with White against Fabiano Caruana, opting for the ultra-solid Scotch Four Knights. It wasn't much of a test for Caruana, but Nepo apparently felt it was okay to give up a white game against one of his closest pursuers and the event's rating favorite. Caruana remains a point out of first.

That left the way clear for Giri and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave to possibly close to within half a point. Giri did it, though not without some anxious moments. Ding played very well on the black side of a Delayed Ruy Lopez Exchange Deferred and at first his attack was faster. That all changed with a single move: 20...g4? allowed White to close the kingside, and once his attack got started it was unstoppable. It was an impressive finish for Giri, who has scored two and a half points in his last three games.

As for Vachier-Lagrave, the second cycle has not gone well for him. With Black against Alexander Grischuk in the so-called Carlsen Variation against the Sicilian (1.e4 c5 2.Nc3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Qxd4 Nc6 5.Qd2), he was doing fine after the opening. "Fine" can mean different things, and in this case it didn't refer to a stable equality but equal chances while balancing on a precipice. MVL went wrong and was almost immediately lost, but then errors by Grischuk and tactically resourceful play by Vachier-Lagrave allowed the latter to equalize. I suspect (but could be wrong) that MVL's decision to play 33...Qd5 rather than 33...Rh5 was motivated by the tournament situation, that he hoped to get a position with some winning chances (at the cost of possible losing chances) rather than forcing a drawn ending. If so, it was a brave decision, but one which probably spelled the end of his chances in the tournament. By itself it didn't lose, but he didn't handle the resulting position as well as Grischuk did, and by the time control (at move 40) he was lost. A point and a half behind Nepo, a point behind Giri and half a point behind Caruana with three rounds to go, he may not be mathematically eliminated (especially since he still gets to play Nepo), but he probably needs to go 3-0 and get some help to have a chance. I should add that he is now tied with Grischuk, so the same comments go for him as well (except that he has already played his second game with Nepomniachtchi).

The last game was a draw between Kirill Alekseenko and Wang Hao. It was an interesting game, but one without any significance to the race for first.

The games, with my comments to the first three games, are here. And these are the pairings for round 12:

• Caruana (6) - Giri (6.5)
• Ding Liren (4) - Grischuk (5.5)
• Vachier-Lagrave (5.5) - Alekseenko (4.5)
• Wang Hao (5) - Nepomniachtchi (7)

2020/1 Candidates, Round 10: Nepomniachtchi Pushes The Lead to a Full Point

Four rounds are still enough time for the three gentlemen tied for second place to catch up to Ian Nepomniachtchi - after all, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave was able to make up that one point gap in their head-to-head game in the last round of the first cycle. But it's not a lot of time, and if he increases the lead in the next round it's probably as good as over. We'll see what happens in round 11, after the rest day; for now, let's summarize round 10.

As indicated in the subject line, Nepomniachtchi extended his lead to a full point, taking full advantage of having the white pieces against the lowest-rated player in the field. Kirill Alekseenko seemed completely unprepared for what Nepo played - there was no need for White to produce some sort of clever prep, as Black was at sea from the get-go. White was clearly better after 11 moves, probably winning after 14, and Black could plausibly have resigned after 20 moves. It was a disaster for Alekseenko, who had played well in the first two games of this cycle.

The other three games were drawn. Fabiano Caruana started the round half a point behind Nepo, and had White against Ding Liren. Ding seemed the better prepared player on the day, and if anything it was Caruana who had to sweat a little to make a draw.

The two other players tied for second, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and Anish Giri, were paired with each other. I'm not sure if MVL was ever "mathematically winning", but on multiple occasions he had a serious plus against Giri. All went by the wayside, and once the players made the time control at move 40 they called it a day.

The most exciting game was the only one with few-to-no implications for the battle for first. After 20 moves, Wang Hao had a slight edge against Alexander Grischuk on the board, but a huge lead on the clock. (Grischuk was down to around three minutes to make his next 20 moves, though we shouldn't forget the 30-second increment after each move.) Wang decided to roll the dice with an interesting queen sacrifice; unfortunately for him, he miscalculated (or misassessed) something and was soon not only better (as he was before the sac) or equal (the objective evaluation after it), but lost. Only here did Grischuk's time trouble pay any dividends for his opponent: his 29th move allowed a nice shot, and his follow-up brought the game back to equal. Both players were very short of time now, but were able to coast in from here to the time control, and after 41 moves settled on a peaceful result.

As noted above, tomorrow (Thursday) is a rest day, and they'll go back at it on Friday. Here are today's games, with my comments, and here are the pairings for round 11:

• Nepomniachtchi (6.5) - Caruana (5.5) (A win by either player would be of colossal importance for the standings.)
• Alekseenko (4) - Wang Hao (4.5)
• Grischuk (4.5) - Vachier-Lagrave (5.5)
• Giri (5.5) - Ding Liren (4)

2020/1 Candidates, Round 9: The Chase Pack Grows

Only one game was decisive today, but it should have been two and it might have been all four. The day's one winner was Anish Giri, who won a nice game against Wang Hao on the white side of a Closed Catalan. Giri outplayed his opponent through the first 31 moves, and although he erred and let his opponent back into the game, Wang Hao repaid the favor with interest, and lost. That brought him within half a point of the leader, Ian Nepomniachtchi, and into a tie for second with Fabiano Caruana and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave.

The latter was a co-leader going into the previous round, but lost to Caruana to fall off the pace. He could have fallen even further back today, as he was completely lost against Ding Liren. Unfortunately for the latter, he passed over one easily winning move (36.Rxb6) en route to what he took to be a different winning idea (36.Rd1?! Qf6 37.d6??), only to discover (after 37...Re6!) that it wasn't winning at all. It was a pity, as his enterprising opening play, culminating in 15.Nd4!!, merited a better outcome.

At the top of the pile, Nepomniachtchi drew fairly comfortably, with Black, with Alexander Grischuk. But Grischuk gave him a serious opportunity at one moment with the interesting but dubious 26.Rxf7, sacrificing the exchange. (It worked for his opponent in the previous round, after all.) Had Nepo accepted the offer, he would have to find some accurate moves, but if he'd have managed he'd have enjoyed a meaningful advantage. Instead, he played it safe, declined the offer, and achieved the easy draw he would have had if Grischuk had played a normal 26th move.

Caruana may have also let an extra half a point slip through his fingers, and for the same reason: he rejected some free food. As in the Grischuk-Nepo game, it was a once-only opportunity, and also as in the Grischuk-Nepo game, it occurred on move 26. Had Caruana played 26...Nxa4, he may have finished the day tied for first. Even so, he remains in good shape with five rounds to go, and here are the pairings for round 10:

• Caruana (5) - Ding Liren (3.5)
• Vachier-Lagrave (5) - Giri (5)
• Wang Hao (4) - Grischuk (4)
• Nepomniachtchi (5.5) - Alekseenko (4)

The round 9 games, with my annotations, are here.

2020/1 Candidates, Round 8: Caruana Beats MVL, Both Trail Nepo by Half a Point **UPDATED**

New year, new tournament. Last year, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave got through the first cycle undefeated; this year, he lost the very first game. Last year, Kirill Alekseenko was winless through the first cycle; thisi year, he wins his very first game. Last year, Wang Hao upset his countryman Ding Liren, winning with Black. This year, despite being well-placed and having the white pieces, he makes the sort of ridiculous draw that, in the Soviet era, would lead people to think that the result had been determined by Party officials.* Last year, Ian Nepomniachtchi got his tournament started with a bang, beating Anish Giri with the black pieces. This year, with the white pieces, he only managed a draw.**

Let's start with Vachier-Lagrave's loss - which is really Fabiano Caruana's win. MVL has long been a champion of the Najdorf, and the Delayed Poisoned Pawn line in the Najdorf, when possible. Within that razor-sharp variation Caruana (which may mean Caruana, or may mean some combination of him, his seconds, and their computers) devised a fascinating, sacrifice-filled idea against the DPP. As far as I can tell, it's an idea that won't see a second top-level outing, but even if I'm right about that the variation is as good as impossible for a human being to navigate at the board on his own. MVL did an incredible job to fight as well as he did, and with only a little help from Caruana managed to reach a difficult but drawn ending with knight and pawn vs. rook and pawn. Unfortunately for Vachier-Lagrave, he was unable to hold it, and with the loss fell out of his tie for first. He and Caruana are half a point behind Nepomniachtchi, who drew his game with Giri (briefly discussed below).

The day's other decisive game will probably prove less significant for the standings, but it was a great back-and-forth battle. Last year, Nepomniachtchi surprised the field and chess fans by playing the French; this year, Grischuk has incorporated that opening into his repertoire. It worked well, too, as he was equal or a touch better throughout the middlegame against Alekseenko. In a complicated ending Alekseenko offered (I assumed it was an offer and not an accident) a slightly unsound exchange sacrifice, but after a subsequent Grischuk error Alekseenko enjoyed full compensation. Part of what made the game so remarkable is that both players seemed to fighting for a win almost from start to finish, and in the end this is probably what cost Grischuk the game. At some point he needed to pull the plug on his winning efforts and make a draw, but he didn't. Alekseenko finally won, after around seven hours, and both players are tied at -1.

The more important of the two draws was Nepo-Giri. Giri trotted out the Sveshnikov Sicilian, and made a fairly comfortable draw. He remains on 50%, while Nepomniachtchi is now the sole leader (as he was through most of the first cycle) with his +2 score.

Finally, it's hard to know what to make of the Wang Hao-Ding Liren farce. If this were some throwaway event, it wouldn't matter, but why would Wang Hao, a point ahead of his countryman and only a point out of first in the biggest individual event of his life, throw away a white game by going straight into a line that's known to be a trivially easy draw? Unless Wang Hao was feeling under the weather, his choice of 10.Ba3 is incomprehensible, especially as Ding Liren was playing a normal main line against the Scotch - a line he had already played before and was a normal part of his repertoire. Maybe he was being nice to his friend and countryman? Maybe, but weren't they friends and countrymen last year, when he beat him? The draw doesn't do much to help Ding, who is two points out of first, but does undermine Wang Hao's chances to fight for first.

The games, with my notes, are here. And these are the pairings for round 9: 

• Alekseenko (3.5) - Caruana (4.5)
• Grischuk (3.5) - Nepomniachtchi (5)
• Giri (4) - Wang Hao (4)
• Ding Liren (3) - Vachier-Lagrave (4.5)

**UPDATES**

* A couple of readers pointed out that Wang Hao pleaded jet lag. One might criticize his pre-event planning in that case, but it does make his non-effort understandable. Covid has really spoiled the tournament.

** Initially I wrote that at least one thing remained the same, as Nepomniachtchi and Giri drew their game from the first cycle. Except that they didn't, as one reader pointed out. Too much fatigue for me, too, and I couldn't even blame it on jet lag.

The Candidates Resumes Today!

The "2020" Candidates finally begins its second leg today, Monday, April 19, 2021--great news for chess fans, and more importantly a hopeful sign that one more aspect of life is on its way back to normal. (The older I get, the more I realize that there isn't any such thing, but only the way things were five minutes before the latest crisis, major innovation, social upheaval, war or other calamity or life-changing event. But to use an old phrase that's depressing if one reflects on it, using "normal" in a loose and popular sense is good enough for government work. Speaking of "normal", having parentheticals that are three times as long as what purports to be the main paragraph is not normal, so let's get back to the point of the post, shall we?)

When things left off last year, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and Ian Nepomniachtchi were tied for first, sort of. They have the same score - 4.5/7 after the first of two cycles - but the final game of that cycle saw MVL beat Nepo. A playoff is possible, but only if the players are level after all the tiebreaks. That is not the case here, as the first tiebreaker is head-to-head, so it might be useful to think of Vachier-Lagrave as having a 1/4 point lead over Nepomniachtchi.

The co-leaders (or whatever we want to call them) are a full point ahead of the next four players, with Fabiano Caruana, Alexander Grischuk, Anish Giri, and Wang Hao all on 50% with 3.5/7. Bringing up the rear are Kirill Alekseenko (whose qualification was a surprise, and who doesn't seem to have made much news over the past year, either) and Ding Liren with 2.5 points apiece. Place your (metaphorical) bets now: who do you think will win? I picked Caruana (of course) before the event started; at this point, I have no idea what to think, as the players may have forgotten by now how to play slow chess. We'll see. Anyway, here are the pairings for round 8:

• Caruana (3.5) - Vachier-Lagrave (4.5)
• Wang Hao (3.5) - Ding Liren (2.5)
• Nepomniachtchi (4.5) - Giri (3.5)
• Alekseenko (2.5) - Grischuk (3.5)

The action starts at 4 p.m. (16:00) local time in Ekaterinburg, Russia, which is 7 a.m. ET in the US of A. Bad luck for those of watching in the New World, or maybe good luck - it means we won't lose 4-5 hours of productivity per day. Be sure to tune in each day (excepting this coming Thursday and Sunday, which are rest days), as I will be covering the event.

FIDE Candidates: Resumption Postponed to Spring of 2021

Cui bono? The players, especially Wang Hao who was especially vociferous about not resuming. It's good that FIDE won't force the players (and their teams) to take undue risks for the sake of staying on schedule. The biggest loser? Teimour Radjabov, who was right to protest earlier this year and was royally hosed. Maybe the biggest winner is Magnus Carlsen, who might get to keep his title forever, depending on how the pandemic progresses. Anyway, here's the FIDE Press Release.

Candidates Trouble, Wang Hao Edition

Months ago, Teimour Radjabov withdrew/was forced to withdraw from the Candidates on account of his concerns about COVID, and now Wang Hao is expressing his displeasure with the safety of the venue as well. (HT: Allen Becker) A few moments ago, I listened to Fabiano Caruana's interview after his round 1 game at Norway Chess, and it was clear that Wang Hao is by no means alone in his concerns, either. It is clearly premature to assume that the Candidates will occur on schedule on November 1 and in Yekaterinburg, Russia.